Terrible news for China and China backed Taliban as Russia creates a military alliance for a major assault.
For Russia, Tajikistan, and Central Asia forms what Moscow considers its “exclusive sphere of influence”. Furthermore, Tajikistan is a signatory to the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), which is the Russian equivalent of NATO. For China, meanwhile, Tajikistan is its future gateway into not just Afghanistan and Iran, but also the Persian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman and subsequently, the global sea links via the Arabian Sea. This allows China to bypass the India-dominated Indian Ocean and the Strait of Malacca, which India can willingly block at any time. The Strait of Malacca is critical to the very existence of China, as its energy and oil supplies pass through this narrow chokepoint.
Now, coming to India, Tajikistan is of extreme geostrategic value. China aims at creating a fall-back region for its armed forces by occupying Tajikistan’s Pamir region – which accounts for 45 per cent of the country’s territory. The Pamir region is also known as the ‘roof of the world’. By gaining control over this region, China can dominate lowlands, especially Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK) and occupied Ladakh. India is looking to reunify these illegally usurped territories with itself. China knows India is about to launch an offensive to reclaim its territories, and therefore, it is preparing to handle a military assault in what it calls Aksai Chin by occupying the Pamir region of Tajikistan.
Now that we have established Tajikistan’s extreme value to Russia and India, it would be understandable for both these counties to base their anti-Taliban operations out of Tajik territory. Not only will the alliance have an edge over the Taliban but will also derail China’s plans at swallowing Tajikistan’s Pamir region.
Therefore, a military alliance coupled with an offensive against the Taliban is coming soon. Tajikistan has asked a Russia-led alliance for assistance in dealing with its new security challenges. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov last week reiterated Russia’s allyship with Tajikistan, adding that “if there is an attack on Tajikistan, this will, of course, receive immediate attention from the CSTO.” Asked if Russia would consider deploying troops to Afghanistan, Lavrov said the answer was “obvious.”
Last week, Russia carried out a training exercise of its forces in Tajikistan, in a message to the Taliban as well as China. Russian military helicopters based in Tajikistan fired air-to-surface missiles. Russia’s defence ministry said on Monday that two MI-24 attack helicopters and two military transport helicopters had taken part in a training exercise in Tajikistan during which unguided missiles had been launched at more than 15 ground targets. The exercise had simulated an attack on illegal armed groups along with a convoy of cars, enemy fire points and arms caches.
Almost simultaneously, Russia is making several strategic moves. Russia is prepared to activate a military base in Tajikistan against advancing Taliban forces on the CSTO ally’s southern border.
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